AI Chip Infrastructure · Venture Return Analysis
Cerebras Systems went public in 2026 after one of the longest AI infrastructure bets in venture history. Here's what every investor made — from the $0.85 Series A to Tiger's $89 Series H.
The Price Journey
From first institutional check to intraday high. Labels printed directly on chart — no hover needed.
Investor Returns
Every funding round sorted by return. Series A ($0.85 entry) × $311.07 day-one close = 366x.
MOIC = day-one close ($311.07) ÷ entry share price. Simplified — excludes dilution, fees, secondary transactions.
Annualized Returns
Higher IRR = better annualized return for years held. Series A: 73% per year over 9+ years.
6-Month Lockup Scenarios
What the returns look like 6 months after IPO under three price scenarios.
Early investors still extraordinary. Series H at $89 near break-even (~1.7x).
Series A at 366x. Series G at 8.6x, Series H at 3.5x.
Series H at 5.2x in under a year. Series A at 549x.
Lockup · All Rounds
Split into early and late so both scales are readable side-by-side.
Early Rounds (A–E)
Late Rounds (F–H)
Who Won
Reported data from The Information. Paper gains at day-one close unless noted.
Entry: 2016 · Series A
GP Eric Vishria invested for 'deep hardware expertise.' Deployed $250M in late rounds + a $225M SPV. Late rounds added ~$300M in cash returns while compressing the fund multiple.
Entry: 2017 · Series A
Nine-year hold through the withdrawn 2024 IPO filing and ultimately the 2026 debut. Patient capital thesis fully validated.
Entry: 2016 · $6.5M Ser. A check
$6.5M into Series A. Built 6% stake worth ~$2.5B at IPO via multiple SPVs on $146.5M total invested.
Entry: 2019 · Series E
Four-round participant including Series F-1 at $14.66 — a below-F discount entry that proved well-timed.
Entry: 2025 · $36.23/share
5.1x at IPO, 8.6x at day-one close in ~1.25 years. Strong crossover return on the OpenAI deal tailwind.
Entry: 2025 · $89/share
Led $1B Series H. Returned $1B at IPO pricing alone. 3.5x in under 6 months.
Benchmark raised a $225M SPV funded by its GPs and LPs to participate in Tiger's 2026 round — adding ~$300M in returns but compressing the fund multiple. Eclipse used multiple SPVs to grow a $6.5M Ser. A check into a 6% stake worth ~$2.5B at IPO on just $146.5M total invested (17x+). A masterclass in using structured vehicles to maintain ownership as AI megarounds made standard pro-rata rights insufficient.
Complete Data
Analysis
Cerebras wasn't a two-year AI application trade. Benchmark's Eric Vishria invested in 2016 for 'deep hardware expertise.' Earliest investors waited nine years — far longer than typical software — but the power-law outcome validated the patience.
Tiger Global led a $1B Series H at $89 in 2025 and returned $1B at IPO pricing alone, 3.5x at day-one close in under six months. The OpenAI $20B deal, announced December 2025, was the catalyst that unlocked the IPO after a 2024 filing was withdrawn.
Eclipse's 6% stake = ~$2.5B at IPO. A 50% post-lockup decline still leaves them at ~8.5x on total cost. For Series H investors at $89, a 50% decline from day-one close brings them near break-even. The lockup is where late-stage wins or loses.